The record cheese mountain that would last 40 days

Dark navy notice, kicker “Field Mouse Emigration Society · Notice to members · Crossing season 2026”, headlined “America’s cheese mountain has never been taller — 1.52 billion pounds”. A subhead says the chart shows every pound of natural cheese in U.S. cold storage at the end of every published month since 1920, as the USDA’s own survey figures on one zero-based axis with nothing smoothed and nothing left out, and that the old summit of the 1980s stood until 2016 and has since been beaten fourteen times. A badge reads “Demonstration · drawn by us from public data”. The main panel is a cheese-yellow area chart of stocks in billions of pounds on an axis from 0 to 1.6: a low, sawtoothed pile through the 1920s to 1940s, a rise to about 0.6 billion in the mid-1950s, a sharp spike labelled “1983: the old summit, 1.25 billion lb”, a collapse to about 0.33 billion at the end of 1989, then a steady climb to a peak labelled “July 2022: the tallest ever, 1.52 billion lb”, with white circles marking each new all-time high since 2016. To the right, a big gold “1.52 billion lb” is captioned as the tallest pile in more than a century of USDA records. A read-out says the pile has outgrown even the government-cheese years, has set 14 new all-time highs since May 2016 and still stood at 1.44 billion lb in August 2026. A recommendation says to book the autumn crossing and pack the large bag. A “summit log” table lists Sep 1983 1,248.2M lb (old summit), May 2016 1,249.4M, Jul 2017 1,369.5M, Jul 2018 1,413.0M, Apr 2020 1,478.6M, Jul 2022 1,521.8M (all-time high) and Aug 2026 1,442.7M (latest). The footer credits the USDA NASS Cold Storage survey via Quick Stats and says the society, read-out and recommendation are invented and every stock figure is real. — Showing the misleading chart

Cream-background chart headlined “The record pile is 40 days of cheese. The 1983 pile was 96.” A subhead says a stockpile only means something next to the rate it is used up: between September 1983 and July 2022 the pile grew 22%, from 1.25 to 1.52 billion pounds, while U.S. cheese output grew 2.9 times, from 4.77 to 14.04 billion pounds a year, so the record is lower than the 1983 pile and lower than any summer from 1950 to 1987, and stood at 35 days in August 2026. On the left, two small line charts from 1920 to 2026: “The notice’s number”, stocks in billions of pounds with 1.25 marked in 1983 and 1.52 in 2022; and “The missing denominator”, cheese output over the past 12 months, climbing smoothly from about 0.5 to 15 billion pounds, with 4.77 marked in 1983 and 14.04 in 2022. The main panel, “Stocks ÷ output: days of U.S. cheese production on hand, end of month”, on a zero-based axis to 180 days, swings seasonally between about 16 and 94 days before 1950, peaks at 161 days in September 1954 (a pile of 0.61 billion lb), stays between about 42 and 120 days through the 1960s and 1970s, rises to 96 days in September 1983, collapses to 21 days in November 1995 and then, from 2000, stays between 28 and 41 days, with a dashed line at the record pile’s 40 days, labelled “40 days (dashed line), Jul 2022 · 1.52bn lb, the ‘record’”, and 35 days in August 2026. Three cards follow. “Divide before you compare” says a 1983 pound sat in a country making a third as much cheese, 1.52 billion lb is 39.6 days of output against 95.7 for 1.25 billion, and July 2022 is about 41 days of 2022’s domestic use. “Two different mountains” says the federal government owned about 60% of cheese stocks in 1984 under the Milk Price Support Program, while today’s are almost entirely privately held working inventory, including cheddar left to age. “How the ratio is built” explains stocks divided by 12-month cheese production (natural, excluding cottage) times 365.25, notes that 1982 production was published by quarter and spread evenly, and says this is days of output rather than days of supply, since 7–9% of output in 2022–25 was exported. The footer credits USDA NASS Quick Stats and USDA ERS and says both drawings are ours. — Showing the misleading chart

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A mouse emigration notice we drew from USDA cold-storage figures celebrates America’s tallest cheese pile ever: 1.52 billion pounds in July 2022, 14 all-time highs since 2016, the 1983 “government cheese” summit left behind. Divide the pile by how fast the country makes cheese and the record is 40 days of output, against 96 days in 1983 and 161 in 1954.

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats — natural cheese in cold storage, end-of-month stocks (Cold Storage survey), and total cheese production, monthly, United States, January 1920 to August 2026 (for 1982, stocks for six months only and production by quarter), bulk file retrieved 8 October 2026; domestic use from USDA ERS Dairy Data (supply and utilization of dairy product categories); government share of 1984 stocks from the USDA ERS Chart of Note “U.S. stocks of natural cheese are at the highest levels since 1984” (3 June 2016), 2026Added October 8, 2026

01The claim

America’s cheese mountain has never been taller. A notice of the kind a field-mouse emigration society might pin up, which we drew from USDA survey figures: every pound of natural cheese in U.S. cold storage at the end of every published month since 1920, one zero-based axis, nothing smoothed. The pile reached 1.52 billion pounds in July 2022. It first beat the 1983 “government cheese” summit of 1.25 billion in May 2016, the first of 14 all-time highs since then. Recommendation: book the autumn crossing and pack the large bag.

02The trick

Every figure on the notice is right, and the axis is beyond reproach. What is missing is the thing a stockpile has to be measured against: how fast it gets used. A pile of cheese is only large or small next to the rate the country makes and eats it, and that rate has not stood still. Over the twelve months to September 1983, U.S. plants made 4.77 billion pounds of cheese; over the twelve months to July 2022 they made 14.04 billion, 2.9 times as much. The pile grew 22% over the same span. So the 1983 summit held 96 days of the country’s output and the 2022 “record” holds 40, and by that measure July 2022 sits below every summer from 1950 to 1987. Raw totals of anything measured against a growing base will keep setting records on their own, the way a big country tops every list. The two piles were also different things. By 1984 about 60% of cheese stocks were owned by the federal government, bought to support milk prices. The 2022 pile was commercial inventory: under six weeks of output for a much larger industry. Same word, same axis, different mountain.

03The fix

Divide before you compare. Put the stockpile over the flow it serves, here end-of-month stocks over the past twelve months of production, expressed as days on hand, and draw that on a zero-based axis. The honest chart shows the numerator and the denominator as small panels beside the ratio, so a reader can see where the change comes from: stocks up 22%, output up 2.9 times. The ratio tells a different story from the pounds. (Production here is NASS’s total cheese, which is natural cheese excluding cottage, so numerator and denominator match in kind.) Cheese stocks stood at 161 days of output in 1954, 96 in 1983 and 21 in November 1995, and since 2000 they have stayed between 28 and 41 days. The July 2022 “record” is 39.6 days, and August 2026 is 35. Divide by domestic use instead of production and July 2022 is about 41 days of 2022’s use (USDA ERS supply and utilization tables), so the answer does not hinge on that choice. It is days of output, not days of supply: 7–9% of U.S. cheese output in 2022–25 was exported. Then say what the pile is. USDA notes that the federal government owned about 60% of cheese stocks in 1984, while today’s stocks are almost entirely privately held, and some of any cheese inventory is cheddar left to age on purpose. Both 1983 and 2022 show a lot of cheese, but only the 1983 pile was largely bought up by the government.